If you were following higher education news this summer, you would have noticed that one topic seemed to edge above all others: enrollment. No matter public or private, two-year or four-year, enrollment was — and continues to be — top of mind. Enrollment in higher education overall is down for the fourth year, and community colleges are going into the fifth consecutive year of enrollment decline. So, as the start of the next academic year nears, I wanted to provide you with some background on what seems to be happening to college enrollment and how MCC has been and will be impacted. Changes in enrollment, whether up or down, can be traced to four key factors: demographics, economics, competition, and culture. The next four Wednesday Messages will each focus on one of these factors. Then, my remarks on All College Day will focus both on what MCC is already doing and what we are planning to do to navigate an enrollment landscape where the maps of the past may no longer be that useful.
Today’s message is about demographics.
First, let’s look at the national picture.
According to the Digest of Education Statistics, the national population of 18-19 year olds hit its peak in 2009 and has declined since then. Population data on individuals below 18 is, at best, flat. Because not all of these students, sadly, will make it through high school, both the short- and long-term data indicate that the pipeline of traditional college-age students is declining and will continue to decline. This is national data, meaning that it smooths out differences between the states—and these differences are important. New York recently fell from the third to the fourth most populous state, behind California (1), Texas (2), and Florida (3). We are now fourth because the rate of population growth in New York is far below that of the other states; in fact, our population growth over the past five years is just 2.2%. (Florida’s is 7.8%; Texas, 9.2%.)
For those in higher education enrollment management, a key demographic isn’t just population, it’s age: they look at how many individuals are in the K-12 pipeline to college (ages 5-18). In New York, 21.3% of residents are between 5 and 18, and in 2015, about 4.2M residents were 18 and under, which is 100K fewer than in 2010. That’s a sizeable decline over just five years. This is the big picture that shapes higher education enrollment in our state: the rate of population growth is slowing, and New York is aging. Thus, there are fewer college-age students across New York, period, and this number is shrinking every year.
Now, let’s look at the local picture.
At MCC, about 81% of our enrollment comes from Monroe County. While the population of New York (NY) increased 2.2% from 2010-15, our county population increased less than 1% (.7%) over the same time period. It will surprise no one were I to observe that NY’s population increase is being driven by downstate. Population increases in the five boroughs of New York City ranged from 1.2% in Staten Island to 5.3% in Brooklyn, which alone is home to a population almost four times as large as Monroe County. The number of residents in the K-12 pipeline in 2015 in Monroe County was about 160K, down about 9K from 2010; in Brooklyn, it was 603K, an increase of 11K since 2010. We see this story playing out in our local school districts, most of which have fewer students and fewer graduates each year.
The same story of declining numbers of younger residents is playing out across all of upstate NY and is very important to MCC because we have historically focused our enrollment efforts on attracting recent high school graduates and younger adults. The vast majority of our students fit the definition of “traditional age”: about two-thirds are below 24. This enrollment strategy is challenging when we live in a state in which the K-12 pipeline is shrinking and in a county where it is shrinking even faster.
When we think about the intersection between enrollment and demographics for MCC, then, we need to ask two questions: (1) is there any part of our service district in which the number of traditional age students is still strong?; and (2) is there any demographic in our district that we are underserving? The answer to both questions should help drive and refocus our enrollment strategy; and the answer to both questions is “yes.”
Answer 1: Almost 25% of the population of the City of Rochester is under 18, representing both the highest percentage and the highest number of students (by far) in the K-12 pipeline in Monroe County. This population is also under-represented in higher education, and their lack of higher education credentials leaves them outside of economic opportunity. If we seek to grow enrollment and help our community advance, we must focus efforts in the City and on partnering with RCSD. We are.
Answer 2: Only about 13-15% of MCC’s enrollment has been made up of students age 25-29. According to the American FactFinder survey of the US Census, about 84,000 of those age 25 and older in Monroe County have some college but no degree. Let’s assume, conservatively, that 10% of these individuals may wish to complete a college credential connected to career opportunities; that equates to 8,400 potential students (more than half of our current headcount enrollment). If we seek to grow enrollment and help our community advance, we need to focus efforts on providing programs that meet the needs of returning adult students. We are.
If you have ideas on ways to tap into the RCSD K-12 pipeline and/or meet the needs of returning adult students, please share them on the
blog.