Today’s message is the second of four on the factors influencing enrollment; it focuses on the economy. Let’s break this apart into two different parts: the unemployment rate and workforce demand.
Unemployment
It has been long documented that enrollment in community colleges runs countercyclical to the economy, specifically the unemployment rate. In good times, individuals have little difficulty finding jobs or remaining employed, they have no reason to think about going (or going back) to college, and they have the resources to send themselves or their children to more costly four-year colleges. In bad times, individuals may have great difficulty finding jobs or even lose the ones they have. They see community colleges as offering a chance to train and retrain, providing more affordable access to higher education, or even just serving as a safe, close to home, port to ride out the economic storm. As soon as the good times return, these individuals return to their previous patterns. So, our enrollment seems to ride a roller coaster that rises and falls with an extra push from the unemployment rate.
A crosswalk between MCC enrollment and Rochester unemployment is illustrative. In Fall 2010, MCC’s headcount enrollment peaked at 18,995 students; unemployment also hit a high of 10.8%. By Fall 2015, our headcount enrollment had declined to 14,586; unemployment had fallen to 5.2% (unemployment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics). For reference, know that most economists call an unemployment rate of 4.6-5% “full employment.” The correlation between these two data points, enrollment and unemployment, is clear and longstanding.
One other thing to remember is that because of the depth of the recession (unemployment was at its highest point in three decades), the federal government funded extensions of the unemployment insurance benefits provided to dislocated workers; by December 2009, those in states like New York with unemployment rates over 8.5% were eligible for an additional 20 weeks of additional benefits, including retraining dollars. Researchers have tied this benefits extension to the record but temporary increases in community college enrollments. As unemployment declined, these extensions ended, and most recipients no longer had the resources to attend college.
Workforce Demand
As enrollment at community colleges has declined in the recovery, however, it has become apparent that not all programs are being impacted equally. While some departments and majors are seeing significant decreases, others--including programs in career and technical education (CTE) and science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM)--see only slight dips or even continued growth. Perhaps because of the steady drumbeat of messaging at every level from the White House to local job postings regarding the economic opportunity available to those with credentials in CTE and STEM, student demand has remained fairly strong in these fields. As I’ve noted before, MCC’s enrollment validates this general observation—not just in our workforce fields but across transfer programs, too. You might wonder why.
The majority of MCC students, about 70%, are interested in transferring to complete their baccalaureate. Their planned upper division majors should influence how we think about enrollment because it will influence what courses they take at MCC. Right now, though, this can be hard to discern: prior to the rollout of the Schools this fall, the majority of students (thousands) fell anonymously into the general liberal arts category. In the absence of this data set, we can look at national trends to see what to expect locally. The American Academy of Arts and Sciences runs a project called Humanities Indicators that looks at this topic, and their data are instructive. Since the recession, bachelor’s degree completions in the humanities (defined broadly) have been on the decline, some more so than others, as have degrees in business and management. Completions in the fine arts and behavioral sciences have been flat. Engineering has seen a moderate increase. The real story, though, is in the natural sciences, which have spiked to the extent that, in 2014, the percentage of students graduating in the natural sciences surpassed those graduating in business. We have seen the same trends at MCC.
When we think about the intersection between enrollment and the economy for MCC, then we need to ask two questions: (1) should we expect that enrollment to decline post-recession?; and (2) should we be looking at our curriculum and programs to assure they align with post-recession student interest and behavior?; the answer to both is yes.
Answer 1: Unemployment today in Rochester is less than half that during the peak of the recession. MCC’s enrollment decline is not surprising in this context. In fact, it suggests we fulfilled our students’ goals when they came to us during the recession: we helped them acquire knowledge, skills, abilities, and credentials that they have used to find employment. While we may miss the FTE their attendance generated, we also need to pause and reflect on how we have helped them and our community advance and continue to underscore this important fact. We are.
Answer 2: Our students’ patterns of enrollment are telling us that their interests are changing, shifting from the humanities and business and to STEM and CTE, mirroring national data. Yet, we hear consistently from employers, transfer universities, and professional schools that fundamental academic skills in communication and writing; social and cultural skills and competencies; and critical and creative thinking are essential to success. If we seek to grow enrollment in the humanities and help our students succeed, we need to focus efforts on providing interdisciplinary courses and re-imagined learning environments that reinforce the value of the humanities for non-majors. If we seek to grow enrollment and help our students and community advance, we need to focus on refining, enhancing, and expanding our offerings in STEM and CTE at all MCC locations. We are.
Please share your thoughts on the blog.
Anne M. Kress
Office of the President
08/17/2016 |